In May, MFs were the net sellers in several PSUs, as they deployed Rs 47,600 crore in equities during the month.
Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Those who cannot bear significant downturns (as much as 40 per cent) or have a short horizon should exit entirely.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), has been hitting successive all-time highs over the past three trading sessions. The rally in the scrip has helped it notch over a 21 per cent gain since the start of February, outperforming the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index. The gains for the leader of small passenger cars have been more recent, as the company still trails the Nifty Auto over one- and two-year periods.
The Union government's revenue from securities transaction tax (STT) is on track to exceed its Budget projection for the current fiscal year, with the mop-up already surpassing 50 per cent of the annual estimate. Provisional figures reveal that the Centre has collected approximately Rs 14,000 crore in the first half of this fiscal year up to September, according to a government official. This amount exceeds half of the full-year target of Rs 27,625 crore set for FY24.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have managed to stay afloat in a volatile January that saw the frontline indices hit their respective 52-week high levels and then slip. While the S&P BSE Sensex has lost over 2 per cent thus far in January, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have gained nearly 2.5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively during this period.
rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan answers your personal finance queries.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
'Forget your loss or profit in your portfolio.' 'Look at how much cash you have in hand.' 'If you don't have cash in hand, liquidate at least partially; get into about 20 per cent in cash.'
'If the NDA comes to power with 320-330 plus seats, then we could see some correction. We could possibly see a level of 19,500 to 20,000.' 'If the NDA comes to power with a majority of 400-plus, we could see the markets going to about 23,500-24,000 levels.' 'And from there we could see some correction because markets are expensive at this point of time and a correction is overdue.'
The gap between the highs and the lows in April for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was just 4.1 per cent - the narrowest since July 2021 and nearly half its three-year average. The absence of major positive triggers, sectoral rotation, and cautiousness due to earnings and economic uncertainty have kept a tight leash on the markets, observe experts. Remarkably enough, during the 17 trading sessions in April, the Sensex didn't even log an advance or a decline of more than 1 per cent.
Mutual funds' average cash holdings in equity schemes topped 6 per cent in February as fund managers went slow on deployment of new inflows on expectations of better buying opportunities amid uncertainties in the market.
rediffGURU Nikunj Saraf suggests considering small-cap, mid-cap, and multi-cap mutual funds.
'So, what does one believe -- just 6 stocks that are pushing the indices higher or the 600 scrips that are reflecting economic pain?'
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
Once a quality stock has been bought, the next challenge is to hold on to it -- no mean feat in this age of information overload and incessant noise.
Riding the wave of the equity market, the mutual fund (MF) industry experienced double-digit growth in Samvat 2079, concluding the Hindu calendar year close to the Rs 50 trillion assets under management milestone. After a subdued 6 per cent growth in Samvat 2078, the industry's assets surged over 18 per cent last year to Rs 46.7 trillion. Industry players anticipate that Samvat 2080 will also be a fruitful year for the asset management industry, given the strong inflows from retail investors, particularly through the systematic investment plan route.
The overall market breadth was negative as 1,636 stocks declined against 1,183 advancing ones, on the BSE.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'In the next one-and-a-half, two months you'll get decent amount of opportunities in the mid-cap and small-cap sector at lower levels.'
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
Wipro was the biggest loser among Sensex firms, sliding 2.32 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, ITC, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. IndusInd Bank, Maruti, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finserv were among the gainers.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
The bulk of an investor's portfolio should be in shorter-duration funds of up to one year portfolio duration.
The current valuation is 38 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 22x and over 50 per cent higher than the 20-year average of around 20x.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi answers your mutual fund queries.
In a bid to enhance its equity exposure and earn higher returns for its nearly 65 million subscribers, the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is considering reinvesting 50 per cent of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redemption proceeds back into equity. Sources close to the development said a proposal regarding this was discussed in the investment committee (IC) meeting in October last year, and the recommendation has been sent to the Central Board of Trustees (CBT), the apex decision-making body of the EPFO for its approval. The next CBT meeting is scheduled to be held on Saturday.
Rebalance your portfolio in case it has become overweight on equities vis-a-vis your strategic asset allocation.
'If the majority falls short of expectations, it may prompt initial adjustments in investor sentiment.'
Foreign portfolio investors have been net positive since the Union Budget
Navi Mutual Fund (MF), among the latest entrants in the Rs 35-trillion industry, is looking to make a mark in the passive investment space, which is gaining traction in the country. The Flipkart co-founder Sachin Bansal-led fund house filed seven offer documents with the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on a single day this week. Some of the schemes Navi MF plans to launch are Navi NASDAQ 100 Fund of Fund, Navi Nifty Commodities Index Fund, Navi Nifty 100 ESG Index Fund.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
While selecting a smallcap scheme, go with one that has a good track record and a stable fund manager.
'Given the inherent volatility, investors should take at least a three to five-year view.'
Wipro was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, slipping nearly 2 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC and Bajaj Finserv. On the other hand, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints and Maruti were among the gainers.
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